Senegal’s home gasoline reserves will be mainly used to supply electricity. Authorities expect that domestic gas infrastructure tasks will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, offered there is not a delay. The monetization of these vital vitality sources is at the foundation of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the worldwide technology group Wärtsilä performed in-depth studies that analyse the economic influence of the assorted gas-to-power methods available to Senegal. Two very different applied sciences are competing to meet the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gasoline turbines (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These studies have revealed very vital system price differences between the 2 major gas-to-power technologies the country is at present considering. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gas engines are in fact a lot better suited than mixed cycle gasoline turbines to harness power from Senegal’s new fuel assets cost-effectively, the research reveals. Total cost differences between the two applied sciences might attain as a lot as 480 million USD till 2035 relying on eventualities.
Two competing and very totally different applied sciences
The state-of-the-art vitality combine models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised vitality scenarios to identify the fee optimum approach to ship new generation capacity for a particular country, exhibits that ICE and CCGT technologies current significant price variations for the gas-to-power newbuild program working to 2035.
Although these two technologies are equally proven and reliable, they’re very different in phrases of the profiles by which they will function. CCGT is a technology that has been developed for the interconnected European electricity markets, the place it could possibly operate at 90% load factor at all times. On the other hand, versatile ICE know-how can operate efficiently in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to any other era technologies that may make up the country’s energy mix.
In specific our study reveals that when working in an electrical energy network of limited size similar to Senegal’s 1GW national grid, relying on CCGTs to significantly expand the network capability could be extraordinarily pricey in all attainable scenarios.
Cost differences between the technologies are explained by numerous elements. First of all, scorching climates negatively impact the output of fuel turbines greater than it does that of gasoline engines.
Secondly, ราคาเกจวัดแรงดัน to Senegal’s anticipated access to low cost domestic gas, the working prices turn out to be less impactful than the funding prices. In other phrases, as a outcome of low gasoline costs decrease working costs, it’s financially sound for the country to rely on ICE energy plants, that are cheaper to build.
Technology modularity also performs a key role. Senegal is expected to require an additional 60-80 MW of generation capability each year to find a way to meet the rising demand. This is far lower than the capacity of typical CCGTs vegetation which averages 300-400 MW that have to be inbuilt one go, resulting in unnecessary expenditure. Engine energy plants, however, are modular, which means they can be built exactly as and when the nation wants them, and further prolonged when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The model exhibits that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops on the expense of ICE-gas, it’ll lead to as much as 240 million dollars of extra cost for the system by 2035. The value distinction between the applied sciences can even increase to 350 million USD in favor of ICE expertise if Senegal also chooses to build new renewable energy capacity throughout the subsequent decade.
Risk-managing potential gasoline infrastructure delays
The improvement of fuel infrastructure is a fancy and lengthy endeavour. Program delays aren’t uncommon, inflicting fuel provide disruptions that will have a huge monetary influence on the operation of CCGT plants.
Nigeria knows one thing about that. Only last yr, significant gas provide issues have brought on shutdowns at some of the country’s largest fuel turbine energy vegetation. Because Gas generators function on a steady combustion course of, they require a constant provide of gas and a stable dispatched load to generate constant energy output. If the supply is disrupted, shutdowns happen, putting an excellent strain on the general system. ICE-Gas crops however, are designed to adjust their operational profile over time and enhance system flexibility. Because of their versatile operating profile, they were in a place to keep a much larger stage of availability
The examine took a deep dive to analyse the monetary influence of 2 years delay in the gasoline infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the nation decides to speculate into gasoline engines, the worth of gas delay would be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in additional value.
Whichever means you have a look at it, new ICE-Gas generation capability will decrease the total price of electrical energy in Senegal in all attainable scenarios. If Senegal is to satisfy electrical energy demand development in a cost-optimal means, a minimal of 300 MW of new ICE-Gas capacity will be required by 2026.