Senegal’s home gas reserves shall be primarily used to provide electricity. Authorities count on that domestic fuel infrastructure projects will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, supplied there is no delay. The monetization of those significant energy sources is on the foundation of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the worldwide expertise group Wärtsilä performed in-depth research that analyse the economic impression of the various gas-to-power strategies obtainable to Senegal. Two very completely different applied sciences are competing to satisfy the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These studies have revealed very important system price differences between the two main gas-to-power applied sciences the country is presently contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, fuel engines are in reality a lot better suited than combined cycle gasoline generators to harness energy from Senegal’s new gasoline resources cost-effectively, the research reveals. Total price differences between the 2 technologies could reach as much as 480 million USD till 2035 depending on scenarios.
Two competing and very totally different technologies
The state-of-the-art power mix fashions developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised energy scenarios to identify the fee optimum method to ship new technology capability for a particular country, reveals that ICE and CCGT technologies present significant value variations for the gas-to-power newbuild program running to 2035.
Although these two technologies are equally confirmed and dependable, they are very completely different in phrases of the profiles during which they will function. CCGT is a know-how that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, the place it may possibly operate at 90% load factor always. On the opposite hand, flexible ICE know-how can function effectively in all operating profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to another technology technologies that may make up the country’s vitality mix.
In specific our study reveals that when working in an electricity network of restricted dimension corresponding to Senegal’s 1GW nationwide grid, relying on CCGTs to considerably broaden the community capability can be extraordinarily expensive in all attainable eventualities.
Cost differences between the applied sciences are explained by a variety of components. First of all, hot climates negatively impact the output of gas generators more than it does that of gas engines.
Secondly, due to Senegal’s anticipated access to low cost home gasoline, the working costs turn into much less impactful than the funding costs. In other phrases, because low gas costs decrease operating costs, it’s financially sound for the nation to rely on ICE power plants, which are less expensive to build.
Technology modularity also plays a key role. Senegal is predicted to require an additional 60-80 MW of technology capability every year to have the flexibility to meet the increasing demand. This is far lower than the capacity of typical CCGTs crops which averages 300-400 MW that should be in-built one go, resulting in pointless expenditure. Engine power plants, however, are modular, which suggests they are often built exactly as and when the nation wants them, and additional extended when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The mannequin reveals that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops on the expense of ICE-gas, it’s going to result in as much as 240 million dollars of additional price for the system by 2035. The cost difference between the applied sciences may even improve to 350 million USD in favor of ICE expertise if Senegal also chooses to construct new renewable vitality capacity throughout the subsequent decade.
Risk-managing potential gas infrastructure delays
The growth of gasoline infrastructure is a fancy and prolonged endeavour. Program delays are not uncommon, causing fuel supply disruptions that can have a huge financial influence on the operation of CCGT vegetation.
Nigeria knows one thing about that. Only last year, important gas provide points have triggered shutdowns at a few of the country’s largest fuel turbine energy crops. Because Gas generators operate on a continuous combustion course of, they require a constant supply of gasoline and a stable dispatched load to generate constant energy output. If pressure gauge น้ำมัน is disrupted, shutdowns happen, placing a fantastic strain on the overall system. ICE-Gas vegetation then again, are designed to adjust their operational profile over time and enhance system flexibility. Because of their versatile operating profile, they were able to maintain a much higher degree of availability
The research took a deep dive to analyse the financial impression of two years delay in the gas infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the nation decides to invest into fuel engines, the cost of gasoline delay could be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in further price.
Whichever method you look at it, new ICE-Gas generation capability will decrease the whole value of electricity in Senegal in all possible scenarios. If Senegal is to fulfill electricity demand growth in a cost-optimal way, no less than 300 MW of recent ICE-Gas capacity will be required by 2026.